UN number for Afghan civilian deaths double NATO count

Amid mounting tensions in Afghanistan over civilian deaths at the hands of coalition troops, two dramatically different death tolls emerged this week.

Figures released by the United Nations show that there were 5,191 civilian deaths in Afghanistan in 2009 and 2010.

According to a new analysis published in Science Magazine, that’s twice the number of civilian deaths counted by allied military forces on the ground.

This week’s edition of the Washington-based Science cites numbers from NATO’s International Security Assistance Force. It says 2,537 civilians were killed in 2009 and 2010 as a result of the war in Afghanistan.

Both sets of numbers do have at least one thing in common: they suggest that NATO soldiers have been responsible for little of the rise in civilian deaths following a troop surge in the country.

The UN says about 20% of civilian deaths in the past two years were caused by“pro-government” forces, predominately those associated with NATO. Essentially, the UN attributes about 1,000 civilian deaths over the past two years to NATO forces, about three times more than the ISAF’s tally.

So, why the difference?

John Bohannon, author of the Science article, said he doesn’t think it’s because the military is trying to hide the truth.

He said the differences probably come down to methodology.

He said military officials readily acknowledge that they only count what they can confirm, and that the true death toll is higher.

“I don’t get the impression from the data that the military is hiding anything,” he said.

The UN’s method of counting, Mr. Bohannon said, is less clear. In its report outlining the Afghanistan casualty count, the UN says it uses “a broad range of sources and types of information,” including accounts of eyewitnesses, “military actors,” “local village/district and provincial authorities,” visits to hospitals and medical facilities, video images and media reports.

Throughout the nearly 10-year war in Afghanistan, the ISAF often has been accused of underestimating the civilian death toll.

The Science article cites a battle in Kunar province last month, near the eastern border with Pakistan, in which villagers said 65 civilians were killed, including 50 women and children. The ISAF said only insurgents were killed.

One of the most significant discrepancies is the UN figure that shows 529 deaths were caused by military air strikes in 2009 and 2010, compared to the ISAF’s count of 136.

Michael Bechthold, a military expert at Wilfred Laurier University in Waterloo, Ont., said in some cases, a death believed to be linked to the military conflict could have its roots in something else.

“Afghanistan is a very dangerous country and there are a lot of other things going on — tribal conflicts, regular criminal activities, drug wars,” he said.

A senior NATO official told Science there is no bias in the ISAF numbers, despite the discrepancies with UN data. Still, British army Lt.-Col. George Wilson, who overseas“consequence management” for the ISAF, acknowledged that its calculations are not perfect.

“We do not have a presence in all 34 (Afghan) provinces,” he said in the article. “We only count that which we see.”

Lt.-Col. Wilson said other organizations counting civilian casualties face the same challenges. But he added that“the UN has a much broader mandate” as well as “resources” when it comes to tracking such things.

Asked how he interpreted Wilson’s comments, Mr. Bohannon said: “They’re not saying that their number is closer to the truth than the UN number. . . . Nor did I hear anyone say, ‘We all know that the UN is the real count and ours is just an internal count.’”

Science said it assembled a team of experts to analyze the various data on civilian deaths in Afghanistan. They concluded that civilian deaths were up as much as 20% last year in comparison to 2009.

However, almost all of that increase was deemed the result of“indiscriminate attacks by insurgents rather than ISAF forces.” That was despite more aggressive activity against the Taliban and a troop surge that has doubled ISAF numbers to about 140,000 last year.

In recent days, tensions over civilian casualties have flared in Afghanistan. Afghan President Hamid Karzai said NATO’s apology following an air strike that killed nine children was “not enough.” Then, late Wednesday night, Karzai’s cousin was shot dead in his home — allegedly by coalition soldiers. A NATOinvestigation is underway.

According to ISAF numbers, 90% of the rise in civilian deaths last year were caused by insurgents. It said NATO forces were responsible for killing 12% more civilians last year but wounded 20% fewer. The UN says ISAF forces killed 26% fewer civilians in Afghanistan last year than in 2009.

In terms of air strikes, the ISAF says there were 10% fewer civilian deaths in Afghanistan last year compared to 2009, and the UN shows a 50% drop.

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